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Energy Edge Gas Market Analysis Tool

Energy Edge has developed the Gas Market Analysis Tool (GMAT) as a dynamic web deployed system that incorporates all known gas usage and supplies across the Australia East coast markets using up to date data from a number of key gas supply, usage and transportation data sources.

Energy Edge currently delivers the software capabilities through an online service to subscribing industry customers spanning gas users, gas generation, gas producers and financial institutions.

Technical requirements and software licensing and access terms for the Gas Market Analysis Tool can be delivered in an appendix document.

The current terms for the Gas Market Analysis Tool can be found below.

Download product information

For more information about the Gas Market Analysis Tool please contact Energy Edge

Delivery Mechanism

The Gas Market Analysis Tool is delivered to clients through the freely available Google Chrome internet browser. Energy Edge maintains the application software and comprehensive market databases on our own server. Our software continually processes incoming gas and electricity market data to generate insightful tables, plots, data and graphics.

Users need only access the secure, password-protected URL to gain access to the full range of features and reports.

The product is distributed and licensed on a corporation-wide product subscription basis with the only requirement that users register and use their own accounts. Separate and related entities require their own subscription.

Features

Wholesale Gas Markets - Gas Production Facilities

Registered Gas Production Facilities

The Gas Market Analysis Tool currently illustrates the gas production through blocks of daily, weekly or monthly granularity with data updated on a daily update cycle for each and every registered gas bulletin board facility in Eastern Australia where the data is shown from January 2009.

Figure 1 - East Coast Consumption (by Asset Class) between 2012 and 2016

Figure 1 - East Coast Consumption (by Asset Class) between 2012 and 2016

Unregistered Gas Production facilities

The Gas Market Analysis Tool also covers an estimate of the flows from unregistered facilities, such as Tipton West and Daandine with the best level of granularity and update cycle possible.

Aggregation and navigation of Gas facilities

The Gas Market Analysis Tool has developed to allow for aggregation by gross facility, consumption type and gross upstream and downstream equity ownership.

The data can be further split across regional (state) and sub-regional (hub locations) boundaries.

Wholesale Gas Markets – Gas Powered Generation

Daily Aggregated Gas Usage

The Gas Market Analysis Tool includes the gas usage for each Gas-Powered Generator, calculated on a half-hourly and aggregated basis to a daily rate, based on the AEMO EMMS dispatch generation and technical heat rates for each individual DUID.

Figure 2 – Queensland Gas Generator Gas Consumption (by Facility)

Figure 2 – Queensland Gas Generator Gas Consumption (by Facility)

Market Shippers

It is currently planned to include the shipper quantities calculated in the STTM and DWGM sections below in the wholesale market overviews to get a clearer understanding of the total market net long and short positions.

Wholesale Gas Markets - Gas Flow Analysis

Figure 3 – Sample of Victoria Gas Flow Analysis (9 Aug 2015)

Figure 3 – Sample of Victoria Gas Flow Analysis (9 Aug 2015)

The Gas Flow (Sankey) graph shows the gas flows from upstream ownership through production facilities to notional and physical gas hubs. From here, the gas is delivered to gas generation, other gas hubs and retail and industrial markets with their respective owners. This helps people without direct knowledge of the physical flows and arrangements to view the interconnectivity of the market.

Market Overview – Short term market dynamics

The market overview gives a short term (five days forward and historical view) of the market dynamics including LNG consumption, summary and detailed retail market outcomes and gas generation dispatch in each region.

Figure 4 - Market Overview Snapshot

Figure 4 - Market Overview Snapshot

LNG Timeline – Curtis Island LNG Facilities

The Curtis LNG Timeline deeply investigates supply and demand of gas for each of the three LNG facilities located on Curtis Island, Gladstone; QCLNG, APLNG and GLNG.

The supply side investigates the historical and forecast gas transported to the assets with the demand for the LNG feedstock based on the known and forecast shipping schedules for LNG vessels that have or will visit each of the LNG docks. This is then paired with the calculated auxiliary losses at site to produce a daily storage estimate for each asset. This detail provides a vision of the gas usage and supply to facilities for up to two weeks in advance.

Figure 5 – LNG Vessels Timeline at Curtis Island (based on vessel and location)

Figure 5 – LNG Vessels Timeline at Curtis Island (based on vessel and location)

Figure 6 - QCLNG Daily Gas Consumption, LNG Exports and Onsite Storage Capacity

Figure 6 - QCLNG Daily Gas Consumption, LNG Exports and Onsite Storage Capacity

Interactive Gas Map - Australian East Coast

The Interactive Gas Map provides an overview for a single day while providing clean and easy access to historical behaviour with a mouse over on any class (production, demand, generation and LNG) within a region or pipeline between regions.

Figure 7 - Interactive Gas Map (30 Nov 2015) with onHover for Moomba to Adelaide Pipeline

Figure 7 - Interactive Gas Map (30 Nov 2015) with onHover for Moomba to Adelaide Pipeline

East Coast Retail Markets – Short Term Trading Market (STTM)

STTM Market Summary

The Gas Market Analysis Tool includes a number of Short Term Trading Market (STTM) specific reports for the Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide hubs, including the shipper flows (highlighted in Figure 8) and bid and offer curves.

STTM Sensitivity Analysis

Through the process of calculating and processing each pipeline’s shipper bids and offers, the Gas Market Analysis Tool can also produce the bid and offer stacks coloured by owner’s corporate colours.

From this data, a decision support system of the ex ante market sensitivities can be implemented that shows the resultant market outcomes for additional injections into the hub or withdrawals/backhauls from the hub. These results can be seen in Figure 8 as the “grey shadow” around the black line which represents the ex ante market price.

Figure 8 – Example of Sydney STTM Shipper Schedules with STTM ex-Ante and Sensitivity

Figure 8 – Example of Sydney STTM Shipper Schedules with STTM ex-Ante and Sensitivity

Gas Trading Hubs – Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub (WGSH)

WGSH Market Summary

The Gas Market Analysis Tool investigates the Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub (and will incorporate the Moomba Gas Supply Hub) with comparisons against the local retail markets (Brisbane STTM in this case) and the local gas generation unit revenue. This helps provide context to the each of the gas prices and the possible spark spread or transportation arbitrage that is available.

Figure 9 – Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub Pricing (May 2016 to Oct 2016) Figure 9 – Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub Volume (May 2016 to Oct 2016)

Figure 9 – Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub Pricing and Volume (May 2016 to Oct 2016)

Victorian Retail Market - Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM)

DWGM Integration
Figure 10 - Example of DWGM Schedule Summary (Netted Injection and Withdrawals highlighted by Owner)

Figure 10 - Example of DWGM Schedule Summary (Netted Injection and Withdrawals highlighted by Owner)

The Victorian Declared Wholesale Gas Market has been covered using the same familiar structure as the Short Term Trading Market (STTM).

The data can be navigated by day, by injection, withdrawal or netted position, and by individual injection and withdrawal locations.

Bid/Offer Stacks and Sensitivity Analysis

Individual schedules have been calculated from the actual bid and offer schedules. Through the process of this analysis, it is easy therefore to show those bid and offer stacks. From that point, the stacks have been manipulated to show, all other things being equal, the price sensitivities for additional 10TJ of injections or withdrawals.

Gas and Electricity Market Interaction – Spark Spread Analysis

The short-term market report has been developed and covers the electricity generation by fuel type, with forecast demand, availability and dispatch where available. The report also includes the avenues to market chart for gas, including the local wholesale gas market and wholesale electricity market for the generation type (i.e. OCGT and CCGT). Finally, there will also be a chart to show the individual site based generation. All of the graphics are interchangeable to be based on either electricity ($ per MWh) or gas ($ per GJ).

Figure 11 – Spark Spread Analysis

Figure 11 – Spark Spread Analysis

Well Development and Gas Infrastructure Maps

The Well Development and Gas Infrastructure Map shows the well development by owner, gas compression facility and petroleum lease, as well as the gas infrastructure including gas generation, production facilities, pipelines and industrial loads.

The well development graph can be used to compare the drilling progress on a weekly basis by facility and ownership to gauge the development rate of both new and existing production facilities.

Figure 12 – Gas Wells and Infrastructure Map with graphic of Drilled Boreholes in Qld

Figure 12 – Gas Wells and Infrastructure Map with graphic of Drilled Boreholes in Qld

Data Export Capability

The Gas Market Analysis Tool has been developed to date with two key drivers in mind; gas market navigation and gas data accessibility.

The Gas Market Analysis Tool has been designed with clear and responsive graphic interpretations of the underlying gas data. This has been combined with a simple tool bar navigation and clear reports which cover a number of different aspects of the gas and electricity markets for analysts and market traders in mind.

The data accessibility has been implemented through single-click data download buttons associated with every graphic within GMAT. This will download the represented underlying data as Excel / CSV format or PNG image format. The goal here is that while the pre-defined reports will cover most of the market data; market analysts will always want the ability to extract the data for internal reporting or decision support functions.

Fee Structure of the Gas Market Analysis Tool

The Subscription Fee structure for the Gas Market Analysis Tool is available on request but is based on a single fee for entire corporate wide access.

All subscription service fees also includes the ongoing maintenance of the system.

Detailed terms and conditions can be provided on request for your review.

Information Sources

Information utilized for the Gas Market Analysis Tool (GMAT)

Utilizing our existing proprietary systems and skilled human resources, Energy Edge has been able to collate, pre process, filter and post process data into a format that is easy to use and understand for analysts and traders.

The following table provides an example of the data sources that have been utilized in the development of the Gas Market Analysis Tool.

InformationTranslation and InterpretationSource
Gas Bulletin Board Energy Edge maintained Gas Bulletin Board database Energy Edge maintained database conversion and replication of the AEMO provided Gas Bulletin Board CSV reports.
Short Term Trading Market Energy Edge maintained Short Term Trading Market database Energy Edge maintained database conversion and replication of the AEMO provided Short Term Trading Market CSV reports.
Declared Wholesale Gas Market Energy Edge maintained Declared Wholesale Gas Market database Energy Edge maintained database conversion and replication of the AEMO provided Declared Wholesale Gas Market CSV reports.
Production and Asset Ownership Structure Energy Edge research into the ownership structures of the Gas production, generation and retail, commercial and industrial load throughout Australia Various public sources of information in terms of ownership details including Media Releases, Website detail, investor relations and interpolation.
Gas-powered Generation Gas Consumption Utilizing a combination of the electricity energy generation, combined with Energy Edge understanding of the natural gas utilized by all GPG in Australia. AEMO provided Electricity Market Management System (EMMS) which provides the energy outputs of all gas generators throughout Australia.
Non-Gas Bulletin Board Production Utilizing Energy Edge research, the gas production of non-Gas Bulletin Board producers has been estimated. Various public sources of information including Queensland and Federal government reports
Physical Gas Market Structure and Geo-Maps Utilizing Energy Edge research, the physical network structure of the gas market. Various public sources of information including gas pipeline, production and gas generation infrastructure maps and GIS data, as well as investor relations and company gas market reports
LNG Shipping Schedules LNG Tanker movements and shipping schedules at the Gladstone port Primarily sourced from Maritime Safety Queensland with additional LNG vessel details