The Edge – Energy Market Reports (Oct – Dec 2020)

Q4 2020 The Edge – Energy Market Reports topics

Energy Edge has recently published The Edge – Energy Market reports.

19 October 2020 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

Investigations into the renewable generation sector including:
  • assessment of solar spillage via congestion and/or constraints for Queensland solar assets including recent security constraints;
  • correlation matrix for wind assets across the east coast and the implications on regional spot market outcomes;
  • calculation of renewable learning curves including historical and projected cost structures for solar and wind; and
  • Management of the constraints and deflationary pressures on the future of solar and wind as well as the potential solutions. It is a complicated issue.

27 October 2020 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • In advance of the Origin Energy Quarterly Production Report (link) due out 31 October and utilising public information within Energy Edge’s Gas Market Analysis Tool (GMAT) to calculate Origin’s share of the APLNG LNG Revenue for the Q3-2020, as well as the rest of the asset.
  • We look at the movements in the JKM market and the different ways of reporting between Prompt Month and forward period (Cal-2021).
  • Update on the drilling programs for each of the major surat producers.

18 November 2020 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Review of the accuracy of our estimates of Origin Energy’s share of the APLNG LNG Revenue and the initial estimates of Q4-2020 outcomes; and
  • Preview of our upcoming MTPASA DUID Review Tool including a clear timing of the exit of Liddell #4.

1 December 2020 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • LNG export records (Featured Image)
  • International and domestic gas prices alignment and the premiums between JKM Netback and Victorian gas markets;
  • Investigations into Queensland gas exports, Iona storage and deeper and revealing look at the Moomba Gas Storage facility;
  • Analysis of Otway and Longford in terms of daily flows and calendar contract year volumes as well as the recent outages;
  • Electricity price distribution analysis using cap contract premium slivers; and
  • Finally some concluding thoughts on this list on this market dynamics.

15 December 2020 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Negative Electricity Prices Analysis – 60 of 63 half hours of negative prices in South Australia between 5th and 7th December
  • Regional comparsion of high price (>$300/MWh) and negative price (<$0/MWh) volatility over time
  • Further assessment of the time of day negative prices over past four years for Queensland and South Australia
  • Update on the WHO weekly Influenza cases and testing across the entire planet.

18 December 2020 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • New Record! Curtis LNG Exports looking to reach 26.6mtpa or +6% above Curtis Island Nameplate capacity (25.4mtpa)
  • International Gas Prices spiked to USD$10.63/MMBTU driven by cold Northern Asian Winter lifting gas demand
  • The relationship between domestic gas prices and international JKM has been visualised with a domestic premium/discount graphic since 2019
  • Relationship has been extended to the Brent Oil slope vs JKM and domestic market outcomes to identify different oil-on-gas vs gas-on-gas behaviours

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