The Edge – Energy Market Reports (Apr – Jun 2022)

Q2 2022 The Edge – Energy Market Reports topics

Energy Edge has recently published The Edge – Energy Market reports.

13 April 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Gas Market Pricing Outcomes – recent nine-month in the domestic gas market in the shadow of international outcomes.
  • APLNG Revenue Assessment – update on the revenue assessment and look at the impact of spot cargoes.
  • Spot Price Distribution – with a sharp change in the electricity market outcomes over the past three weeks, we look at the distribution through a couple of lens.

9 May 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Gas Market Rreadiness for Winter: Investigation into Iona, Longford and QSN to assess the current gas market conditions and how they are different to previous years.
  • Electricity Spot Market: Q2-2022 is currently sitting at the top of the list for spot market conditions, and we show those outcomes against the past twenty years.
  • Black Coal Dispatch: Given the electricity market conditions and the lifting coal costs passing into the dark spread calculations, we have a deep dive into the dispatch and the generator behaviour (dispatch given spot price) of every black coal generator in the NEM.

24 May 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • The Electricity forward curve continues to set new record outcomes with all forward markets for FY2023 rising by $40 to $50/MWh since Monday last week.
  • The final decision for the Default Market Offer is due out tomorrow. We take a look at the implications of the no-win decision.
  • Finally, we look at the recent movement in the gas market outcomes and the causalities.

31 May 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Three out of four retail gas market on the east coast of Australia are currently under price administration, which limits the market price to $40/GJ. We look at the causes and the implications of the cap as the DWGM pre-cap price strikes $800/GJ for the 6am schedule this morning.
  • APLNG has experienced an outage and we look at the surrounding conditions including vessels time at port, gas production and analysis of flows across QSN.
  • Updates on Longford against capacity and the current situation at Iona.
  • Part 1 of the electricity market analysis with an update on the price distribution and the impact of La Nina on rooftop solar.

2 June 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Firstly, we delve into the details around the ADGSM and Heads of Agreement, investigating how can they be used and what implications will they have?
  • Secondly, we look at the alignment of the movements in the electricity markets and the domestic gas and international coal markets.
  • Next, we assess all of the asset classes in terms of the changes in daily dispatch (MW), availability (MW) and utilisation rate / capacity factor (%) in comparison between Cal-2021, Q1-2022 and Q2-2022 to help identify the change in the market outcomes which commenced in April 2022.
  • Finally, we summarise the market conditions and how the market has got to this distressed state.

17 June 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Electricity Market has been suspended. What it means? How did we get here? Is it the right decision? How long will it last?
  • QCLNG Outage has commenced and impact on the gas and electricity markets.
  • Victorian gas market had a near miss with a capped $800/GJ gas price.

23 June 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Electricity Market is exiting suspension. The case for holding the market in suspension.
  • A look at the supply and demand balance for pre-suspension, during suspension and after-suspension.
  • Finally, we look at the QCLNG winter response (good news) and the changing international gas market conditions (bad news).

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