The Edge – Energy Market Reports (Jul – Sep 2022)

Q3 2022 The Edge – Energy Market Reports topics

Energy Edge has recently published The Edge – Energy Market reports.

6 July 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Queensland electricity markets Cumulative Price Threshold;  current projections using PreDispatch, and assessment of the current demand and supply conditions.
  • As the New South Wales flood event continues, look at the locations of the rain with regards to the major coal suppliers to the NSW Black Coal assets.
  •  Victoria Gas Market Update: check back in with Iona Gas Storage Facility and the Longford Gas Plant.

8 July 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • This supplementary Edge – Energy Market Update focuses on the Hunter Valley Flooding Event.
  • Effect of the closure of the train network from the Hunter Valley to the Newcastle Port on access to coal mines, and the shutting down of the AGL Bayswater and Liddell power stations.
  • The implications of the flooding on the export coal markets.

18 July 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Hunter train line has been restored after record July rainfalls.
  • The hunter coal mines support more than just export coal sales with potentially implications on Eraring and Vales Point
  • Investigation into the bidding reasons for patterns and monitor dispatch by NSW Coal assets.
  • Through access to satellite imagery, we can assess the change in the coal stockpiles at the NSW Coal Generators including quantity of Vales Point generation met by coal stockpiles over the past 12 months.
  • Look at the demand forecast, Iona Gas Storage Levels and the deliverability of Queensland gas into Victoria as a cold snap hits South East Australia.

15 August 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Analysis of the Day Ahead Auction  – Could Queensland (LNG exporters) send more gas to Sydney or Melbourne?
  • The analysis of Iona Gas Storage also shows the asset’s ability to “buy low, sell high” but also shows the complexity of the energy market which is coping with administered price caps and market suspension across both gas and electricity.

24 August 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • The broad question: Could more Queensland gas been delivered to the Southern Gas Market? has been sharpened to assess multiple specific questions including some fundamental framing questions.
  • International market prices continue to rise resulting in record Chill Spread. We look at some of the domestic volumetric signals for any danger.
  • Solar beats coal! First time? No… it has happened multiple times. This just means we are further down the path than we thought.
  • Given the high market prices and Queensland resident, I take a look at the royalty calculations for domestic and international gas sales.

12 September 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Investigation into the recent fall in the Russian gas supplies into Europe.
  • How China’s drought has impacted the largest hydro power station in the world at the Three Gorges Dam.
  • Deep dive on the NSW Dark Spread and the impact of electricity hedging on a spot exposed coal generator and the impact of and on coal stockpiles.

29 September 2022 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Assessment of the three competing forces in the new Heads of Agreement decision; Sovereign Risk, Moral Hazard and Information Asymmetry.
  • Analysis of international markets including Nordstream sabotage, British energy policy affecting monetary policy and Hurricane Ian hitting the US gulf.
  • Records Breaking! Record low fossil fuel. Record high solar and wind. Record low carbon emissions intensity.
  • Gas Storage – the impact of falling storage levels on deliverability.

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