The Edge – Energy Market Reports (Apr – Jun 2023)

Q2 2023 The Edge – Energy Market Reports topics

Energy Edge has recently published The Edge – Energy Market reports.

17 April 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Liddell’s Exit: As we enter the final weeks of AGL Liddell’s 50-year operation, we investigate the behaviour in terms of dispatch given the NSW grid demand. Further, we compare that against Origin’s Eraring.
  • Carbon Emissions: Update on the NEM Carbon emissions and comparison against the AEMO ISP2022 middle case scenarios.


4 April 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • ADGSM Not Triggered: Minister King has received updates from ACCC, AEMO and others and has decided not to trigger the ADGSM for Q3-2023.
  • Reviewing GLNG Annual Delivery Plan: We review the GLNG ADP and its implications for the GLNG exports for the year ahead.
  • Iona exceeds capacity: Iona has reached 24,682TJ, over the 24,000TJ capacity. This is much earlier and higher than last year’s peak and compare to GSOO 2023.
  • Longford MT Capacity Outlook Update: Longford has recently updated their Medium-Term Capacity Outlook, and we compare to previous reports and historical conditions.
  • Reviewing GSOO 2023: Review of the latest GSOO in terms of SGM production, peak capacity and capacity factors, SWQP and drilling program.


3 May 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • This edition of the Edge is dedicated to The Competition and Consumer (Gas Market Code) Regulations 2023 aka the Mandatory Code of Conduct aka Instrument.  The Edge report summarises and provides commentary on each of the four pillars of the Instrument.
    • Negotiation process for Expression of Interests, Gas Initial Offers, Gas Final Offers
    • Reasonable Pricing provisions of negotiations and agreements
    • Good Faith provisions of the Code of Conduct
    • Record Keeping obligations.


15 May 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • The New Longford?:  Analysis of Longford’s updated Medium Term Capacity Outlook expectations, and its subsequent material decline.
  • The complication of Storage: Iona Gas Storage has shifted into gas supplies after the recent peak storage levels; we compare before and after the “turn”.
  • Pre and Post Liddell Exit – Gas Generation Review:  Look at the change in behaviour across three analysis periods; two weeks before, two week after and May 2022, including investigations into the role of coal, gas, hydro, solar and wind dispatch.


1 June 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Updated Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy Report 2023.
  • Pre Winter 2023 Update, including…
    • Pricing: Gas and electricity prices and equivalent heat rate.
    • Flows: Investigate SWQP, Northern Gas Pipeline and MSP flows and constraints/limits.
    • Production/Storage: Otway, Moomba, Longford and Iona updates.
    • Demand: Comparison on demand in YoY and relationship with weather conditions.
    • Conclusion: Summary of Concerning and Moderating condition.


19 June 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Potential Longford Industrial Action: Esso fronts the Fair Work Commission with potential supply implications.
  • Code of Conduct Fact Sheet released: New details and updates. Positives and negatives.
  • Queensland Gas Production hits new record: May 2023 saw a new record gas production in Queensland.


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